CICC: the quarterly recovery trend of liquor consumption is expected to gradually enter the stage of price increase in the second half of the year.

Xinhua News Agency, June 19, China International Capital Corporation pointed out that looking forward to the whole year, the quarterly recovery trend of liquor consumption is determined, and it is expected that the second half of the year will gradually enter the stage of price increase. In June, wine companies began to actively prepare for the Dragon Boat Festival market activities, the speed of rebate and delivery has been accelerated, and we expect that major companies will be able to achieve more than half of their sales tasks by the middle of the year. As the wine enterprises from April to May mainly control the price of goods, the shipment volume is small, and the overall channel inventory is at a benign level. We expect that in the second quarter, under the low base in the same period last year, there will be little pressure on the growth of liquor enterprises; in the third quarter, as the economic recovery and consumption scene continue to recover, and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are connected, liquor consumption is expected to show a more exuberant trend. Liquor performance is expected to accelerate growth in the third quarter. We believe that this year, as the beginning of the recovery of the industry, wine companies are still dominated by destocking, and there is no need to over-enlarge the price indicators. Recently, a number of banks have reduced RMB deposit rates, and we expect that with the introduction of loose policies, the economy is expected to continue to repair in the future, leading to the recovery of liquor consumption. After liquor enterprises get rid of inventory in the second half of the year, wholesale prices are expected to rise step by step. It is expected that the price logic of the industry will return further next year.