Citic Securities: it is expected that the probability of the Fed restarting to raise interest rates in July is low.

[Citic Securities: low probability for the Fed to restart interest rate hikes in July] the CITIC Securities Research report pointed out that the Fed's June interest rate meeting kept the level of interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. But the bitmap of this meeting shows that interest rates at the end of the rate hike rose to 5.6%, exceeding market expectations, while economic forecasts show that the Fed believes that the probability of a soft landing for the US economy has improved. Powell's speech continued to strengthen his determination to achieve the inflation target, but his overall statement was less hawkish than the bitmap. We expect the Fed to restart interest rate hikes in July. If core inflation continues to grow by more than 0.4% month-on-month in the third and fourth quarters, there is the possibility of another 25bps rate increase this year, and the rate cut will occur as early as the beginning of next year. Us bond interest rates and the dollar index are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with no obvious trend, and US stocks may turn downwards after the recession is expected to heat up.