[CICC: it may be difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates at the end of the year or gradually open its expectation of cutting interest rates in 2024]-China International Capital Corporation said in a research report that the Fed has decided to "sit tight" and keep the benchmark interest rate at 55.25%, which is fully in line with market expectations. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year and may gradually open its expectations for next year's rate cuts by the end of the year. On the premise that there is no further fermentation of banking risks, we believe that the Fed may basically meet the conditions to stop raising interest rates in the third quarter, but it may be difficult to cut interest rates within this year, and the 2024 rate cut may be gradually opened by the end of the year. We estimate that the effect of credit contraction will begin to accelerate in the third quarter to suppress demand, but the slow release of excess savings will make consumer demand still resilient, and inflation may even end slightly in the fourth quarter, making it difficult for core inflation to fall significantly further. as a result, monetary policy may still need to be tight.