CICC: the Fed has a lower probability of cutting interest rates this year, and interest rates will stay high for a long time.

Xinhua News Agency, June 13, China International Capital Corporation pointed out that the US economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the resilience of the economy will increase the need for the Fed to maintain high interest rates, and "tight money" and "tight credit" will continue to deepen. Under the benchmark scenario, the US economy continues to decline, but the recession may be delayed to the fourth quarter of this year. Inflation fell further, but remained well above the Fed's 2 per cent inflation target by the end of the year. The Fed may maintain austerity, the probability of cutting interest rates this year is low, interest rates will stay high for a long time (High for longer), and the era of low interest rates is drifting away.