[Shen Wanhongyuan: whether the adjustment of the MLF interest rate next week will affect the short-term exchange rate trend] Xinhua News Agency, June 10, Shenwan Hongyuan reported that the MLF interest rate announced next week may affect the exchange rate trend in the short term. Shen Wanhongyuan believes that the lower probability of MLF interest rate reduction next week is due to the fact that it will take time for commercial banks to reverse their net interest margin, the exchange rate is not yet completely stable, and residents' preference for buying houses is still unstable, which is not a good time window for interest rate cuts. If the central bank chooses to cut interest rates, it can boost market confidence in the short term, but at present, the weak motivation for residents to increase leverage does not come from interest rates, but from the preference to buy houses. At present, the necessity and effect of interest rate cuts on stabilizing the real economy may not be direct. However, the short-term pressure on the exchange rate can also be hedged through ways such as counter-cyclical factors, and the exchange rate will rise and stabilize after temporary depreciation. Looking forward to the end of the year, with the continuous improvement in residents' income and the promotion of the "Baojiao Building" to the completion of real estate construction in the first half of this year, the improvement in consumption, especially the consumption of optional goods, will be launched in the third quarter, and the "N-shaped" recovery for the whole year is expected. This will lead to a return to the expected outlook for the economy. The narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States has led to a return to capital and financial flows, and the RMB is expected to return to the 6.9-7.0 range against the dollar by the end of the year.