AP, June 9 / PRNewswire-FirstCall-Asianet /-- Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University, said that given that the Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates high enough to bring the economy to a standstill, the likelihood of a US economic downturn is rising. Harvey is known for using the yield curve as an indicator of recession. Harvey, who is also head of Research Affiliates research, wrote in a new report that the possibility of a soft landing has given way to an increase in the risk of economic contraction. He believes that the damage to the Fed's rate-raising cycle has been done, but many investors and economists are now looking at the status quo with optimism. Harvey's research on the yield curve is highly respected on Wall Street. His research shows that for decades, before the US recession, there was an upside-down yield curve in which the three-month Treasury yield was higher than the 10-year yield. This has happened upside down in all eight recessions since 1968. He said that the current upside down is a warning to businesses and consumers that an economic downturn may be imminent.