Xinhua News Agency, June 6, China International Capital Corporation pointed out that after the range fluctuations in the first half of the year, the factors driving the fluctuation of the dollar index are expected to change in the second half of the year. We believe that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle will reach its peak, and although the possibility of a rate cut during the year is still relatively low, as the lagging effect of interest rate hike on the economy becomes apparent, US economic growth and inflation are expected to slow gradually. market expectations for interest rate cuts may also gradually rise, pushing US bond yields back from their current relative highs. The data show that the probability of the United States entering a recession within a year may be significantly higher than that of Europe, and as China continues to recover moderately in the second half of the year, the economic fundamentals of the United States and Central Europe may converge. On the whole, the turning point of the trend reversal of the dollar may not be confirmed until the Fed stops raising interest rates or even gradually heats up expectations of interest rate cuts. In the benchmark case, we believe that the dollar index may weaken further in the second half of the year.