[Citic Securities: the United States may fall into recession in the fourth quarter] the CITIC Securities Research report pointed out that for US stocks, under the risk of recession and the extremely tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the United States may fall into recession in the fourth quarter, and the liquidity environment is difficult to support the current excessive valuation level, and the rising situation driven by technology blue chip since the beginning of the year may face "rebalancing." Recession expectations further reflect the third quarter defense attributes of the required consumption, health care and utilities sector may relatively outperform. In the medium to long term, when the United States enters recession and investors form expectations of monetary easing, they focus on the semiconductor industry, which has entered a new upward cycle, and the Internet leaders that empower AI, reduce costs, account for a high share of overseas income and benefit from the depreciation of the dollar. However, in the second half of the year, we still need to be wary of the liquidity risks faced by the US commercial real estate default, the debt ceiling impasse and the US Treasury market after the debt ceiling is raised.